The unexpected keeps happening. We live in an age of ‘normalized unprecedentedness’.  Others have called this predictable unpredictability, polycrisis, and permacrisis.  

We often don’t know what’s going to happen next, or what the consequences will be.

Businesses have recently had to deal with the effects of war, climate events, cyberattacks, a pandemic, software glitches, financial crisis, political upheaval, and economic shocks. 

We previously described this environment as DUSTy; these surprising events are becoming more Damaging, Unpredictable, Sudden, and Transformational.

How to build protection against a DUST Storm

Disruption can be seen as natural. Change should not be seen as a threat, but as an opportunity for innovation and improvement. 

A mindset that challenges the status quo can build a culture in which learning from experience – and from mistakes – is accepted and encouraged. 

Build resilience and adaptability by creating safe spaces for sharing ideas.

It is important to balance stability and change, emphasizing continuity while promoting innovation. 

To support creativity and change, leaders need to inspire teams, dismantle barriers to collaboration, encourage experimentation, and maintain open communication.

Damage control and embracing the unpredictable

The damaging nature of a DUSTy environment highlights the importance of organizational and individual resilience. 

The ability to bounce back from crises requires structures, procedures, and resources – financial, physical, human – to recover from crises, and to drive change to prevent or mitigate future disruptive events.

Meanwhile, the unpredictable nature of a DUSTy environment demands a high tolerance for ambiguity – now a critical skill. 

This means being prepared for the unexpected, and abandoning rigid planning in order to navigate uncertainty with greater confidence.

Responding to the Sudden

The risk management handbook tells you to anticipate. But it’s not possible to prepare for all eventualities. 

When taken by surprise, you can’t have the person with their finger on the button that puts out the fire saying, ‘I don’t have authority to push this button’. 

Jobs have to be designed to give autonomy, and supervisory management needs to step back from a traditional directive style, in which nobody moves until they are told.

One of the potential benefits of a DUSTy environment is the strong incentive to change, to transform. 

A sudden, unpredictable, damaging crisis has to be a trigger for changes to prevent the same thing happening again – and this will need creative thinking.

Instead of traditional planned change one commentator advocates ‘collaborative play’ to develop truly innovative solutions, involving employees at all levels, sharing and combining ideas. 

Some organizations experienced this during the COVID-19 pandemic, as individuals and teams solved problems rapidly on their own initiative, without management directions.

The leadership contribution

Senior leaders must role-model an adaptable, responsive, change-friendly culture. 

Traditional command and control stifles responsiveness and increases resistance to change. 

Employees feel safe to experiment and take risks in a facilitative supportive environment. 

This in itself can be a difficult shift for leaders to make but is essential for agility.

The HR contribution

It’s claimed that organization culture change is difficult. But let’s define culture as ‘the way we do things around here’. 

First, get people to do things differently. Then, with support, the culture change will follow.

Concerning damaging events:

• Develop your organization’s crisis management capabilities, with regard to prediction, anticipation, response, and recovery.
• Strengthen individual resilience through appropriate training. Interestingly, exposure to fictional crises, in movies for example, has been shown to improve resilience to real events through what has been called a ‘stress inoculation effect’.  

Concerning unpredictable situations:

• Use experiential training to improve tolerance of ambiguity and uncertainty. This may not work for everyone, but you may be able to develop a critical mass of individuals who will be able to cope when necessary.
• War game or ‘red team’ possible crises that could hit the organization unexpectedly. These scenarios don’t have to be realistic as the aim is to trigger innovative thinking.

Concerning ability to respond to sudden crises:

• Redesign jobs to increase empowerment and autonomy.
• Revise and define clear decision rights at all levels: ‘If you see that something is wrong, don’t wait, fix it’.
• If necessary, revise supervisory roles, which may require training and development for long-serving managers who are more comfortable with a directive style.

Help the organization to implement transformational changes:

• Emphasize continuity, what is going to stay the same, such as structures, processes, roles, goals, and the organization’s core purpose. Knowing that key aspects of the organization are not going to change can be reassuring, and overcome resistance.
• Offer training in change management capabilities such as communication, problem solving, creative thinking sessions.
• Revise performance management criteria to incentivize participation in change projects and programs.

Supporting a change-friendly culture

Transparent communication is essential. Keep employees informed about how changes align with organizational goals in order to reduce uncertainty and build trust. 

Employees are more likely to understand and support change when communication is open and consistent.

The aims are to increase individual comfort with constant change and to strengthen the organization’s responsiveness to events. 

Do both, and the future looks more secure.