Inflation is sky-rocketing across the world. It has now hit 9.4% in the UK and 9.1% in the US – these are both 40-year highs.

As a result, it feels like a recession is on the horizon. In fact, research by hiring tech company Greenhouse shows that three in four UK workers think a recession will hit in 2022; the figure was 70% in the US.

Despite this, Greenhouse’s study of 1,000 workers in the UK and 1,500 employees in the US found that both groups were optimistic about the job market.

70% of both UK and US workers were optimistic about the outlook of the job market. The Americans were more positive with 33% being very optimistic, compared to 25% in the UK.

Greenhouse, therefore, asked the respondents if they would consider resigning even if there was an economic downturn.

39% of Brits said they would actively look for a job in the next six months or so, with another 34% saying they wouldn’t actively look, but they would be open to opportunities.

This figure jumped to 57% for the US respondents, with a further 22% saying they would be open for a new job, if they wouldn’t actively look.

Wages, layoffs, and a recession

The things that would particularly push employees to resign are if their company retracted their benefits, particularly flexible working, high wages, and personal growth opportunities. 60% of Americans said would consider leaving in this instance, compared to 47% in the UK. Employers, be warned.

In terms of wage cuts, 66% of Americans would actively look for a new job if they experienced a loss in pay – 35% of these would do this urgently. The situation was similar in the UK, with it pushing 57% to actively look for a new job, and 27% doing so urgently. 

However, Greenhouse’s research found that employers, particularly in the UK, need to not just avoid wage cuts, but should consider raising pay if they want to retain their employees.

62% of Brits told Greenhouse they’ve had a pay rise in the past year; with 33% receiving a higher than 5% wage hike. In addition, 56% of US workers don’t expect wages to fall despite a recession, and 47% are expecting a raise in 2022.

Interestingly, Americans are less optimistic about the impact of the recession on wages, with 52% expecting pay to fall in an economic downturn.

The research further looked into the impact of hiring freezes and layoffs on a company’s reputation and attrition rate. 49% of American respondents said layoffs and hiring freezes would strongly impact their loyalty to a company, 37% further saying it would somewhat impact their company loyalty.

The impact would be even worse (86%) if the company mishandled the layoff process, and wasn’t transparent with workers.

75% of US workers further told Greenhouse they would be put off working for a company that had done layoffs in the past. 60% of Brits agreed that job cuts would put them off wanting to work at company.

So, the message to employers is, be careful with your layoffs, particularly if you want to continue to attract workers in the ‘Great Resignation’ and a recession.

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