World-renowned quantitative futurist and tech leader, Amy Webb, sent out a warning to HR leaders that change is coming their way and strategic foresight will help to plan and build resilience for technology-led upheaval.

During her keynote address at a UNLEASH World 2024 in Paris, HR leaders and decision-makers packed the Main Stage audience to hear Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute, to hear about the key drivers of change happening now and how to think about their strategic responses.

Central to this, Webb explained, is the capacity for strategic foresight – a planning-oriented discipline related to the study of the future.

Webb highlighted the story of BlackBerry to warn off complacency and adopt curious mindsets during periods of change – in other words, to keep asking: What if?

“What if? It’s two very, very powerful words, and I almost never hear them being asked inside of companies. What If is powerful, because it is a signal that we acknowledge we don’t know what the future is going to look like, and that’s okay,” Webb explained. 

We want to lean into uncertainty with curiosity for the purpose of trying to see where we can grow or where we might be disrupted.”

Learning from past mistakes

To illustrate how industries that were once thriving can spiral into rapid decline through poor decision-making, Webb highlighted the story of West Virginia’s coal mining industry.

Coal was once an “emerging technology” that was “so futuristic, so hyper advanced, that it threatened to disrupt everyday life, the economy, the future of work” through the invention of the steam engine, Webb explained.

However, “the future always shows up” and without a plan to adapt or the mindset to change, the coal mining industry fell into decline, resulting in mine closures and tens of thousands of jobs lost, with West Virginia getting “the worst of it.”

Webb detailed how industry decision-makers then attempted to reskill coal miners – who were already highly-skilled in their field – by teaching them to code HTML, which was already becoming an outdated and automated programming language.

Why on earth would you kill the skill set of highly trained workers?”

“To me, it seems like a really risky bet to make on the future, and it represents weird decisions that business leaders make when times get tough, when you’re dealing with uncertainty, when change happens fast and there’s no plan.

Radical change is on the horizon

While change is a constant for business and HR leaders to contend with, Webb explained that the convergence of three General Purpose Technologies (GPT) – AI, biotechnology and advanced sensors – is set to bring about a “liminal period between profound disruption and hyper growth.”

“Each one of these enormous areas of innovation has the power to radically shape society and the economy. However, it’s the convergence that matters. These three areas of tech are starting to converge in ways we haven’t seen before.”

The resulting “technology supercycle” will create a period of significant change, which according to Webb is already starting – one that will necessitate strategic foresight and resilience.

Value networks, a “complex and dynamic model that recognizes the interdependencies between an organization and a range of partners and suppliers, customers and competitors”, is a crucial element.

“Value networks, if you understand what they are, they can be very, very powerful drivers of growth. However, it only works if you commit to continuously evolving,” Webb said.

Bystanders and Pathfinders

Rather than taking an “know it all” approach, Webb called on leaders present for the address to embrace the unknown and adopt the “What If” attitude.

Webb divided organizations into two camps: Bystanders and Pathfinders.

BlackBerry, she explained, belonged to the former, content to “stay rigid, to go all in on enterprise without realizing that the core product and service was evolving.”

Bystander companies are also more likely not to map out their value network and hold fast to their “cherished beliefs” at executive level, meaning they “want to just maintain, maintain, maintain”, Webb said.

These organizations also “do not tend to invest in HR…they don’t want to invest in their people”, she said.

“Because of all of this, they tend to believe that they can control the future, because usually, on their spreadsheets, they’re just looking at financials. This makes companies vulnerable. They just don’t realize it until it’s too late.”

On the other hand, Pathfinder companies are proactive in their planning and welcome challenges to their beliefs. They also lean into uncertainty, because “it helps them explore risk and opportunities in new ways in order to unlock possibilities for growth.”

Webb highlighted Japanese gaming company Nintendo as one such organization. Established in 1889, Nintendo has always “done a good job of keeping an open mind and intentionally looking for signals outside of their field,” with a history of adopting new thinking around innovation.

Pathfinders, Webb stated, also share some characteristics in common – they “lean into uncertainty” because “they know that their value network is going to change.” 

“The planning that they do is financial, but they also commit to that longer term planning in a meaningful way. 

She added:

When it comes to Human Resources, Pathfinder companies are all in. They are always developing their people, they are always transforming. It’s not a one and done deal. And in these companies, HR professionals have a seat at the table during ELT meetings.”